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We present a stochastic simulation model for estimating forward-looking corporate probability of default and loss given default. We formulate the model in a discrete time frame, apply capital-budgeting techniques to define the relationships that identify the default condition, and solve the...
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This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not … only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only … risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms for the Choquet expected utility and the statistical property of …
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