This paper applies the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure of Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2003) to a set of volatility models. A MCS is analogous to confidence interval of a parameter in the sense that the former contains the best forecasting model with a certain probability. The key to the MCS...

We present a model where groups attempt to exert influence on policies using both bribes (plata, Spanish for silver) and the threat of punishment (plomo, Spanish for lead). We then use it to make predictions about the quality of a country’s public officials and to understand the role of...

Mounting evidence suggests that the outcomes of laboratory public goods games, and collective action in firms, communities, and polities, reflect the presence in most groups of individuals having differing preferences and beliefs. We designed a public goods experiment with targeted punishment...

This paper develops an explanation for historical differences in the ways in which territorial disputes between sovereign states have been resolved. The main innovation in the analysis is to allow for three possible equilibria: • an unfortified border; • a fortified but peaceful border; and...

We analyze how economy-wide forces (i.e.shocks to terms of trade, technology and endowments) affect the intensity of social conflict. We see conflict phenomena such as crime and civil war as involving resource appropriation activities. We show that not all shocks that could make society richer...

This paper generalizes the cointegrated vector autoregressive model of Johansen (1988) to allow for structural changes. Estimation under various hypotheses is made possible by a new estimation technique, that makes it simple to derive a number of interesting likelihood ratio tests. E.g., the...

We show that for generic economies, every equilibrium admits Pareto improving monetary policy, even with multiple commodities per state. The main assumption is that asset incompleteness be intermediate, in that household heterogeneity does not exceed the number of assets present and absent. We...