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derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved … business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …
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This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...
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