This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

In the context of current economic and financial crisis a comparative analysis of the main indices of economic and social performance of the EU member states is necessary. In such line of argument, the authors propose, as novelty, an economic power-economic performance matrix as a methodological...

This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...