This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...

In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information...

The aim of this paper is to capture the time-varying effects of the relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and economic growth. We use penalized regression splines to estimate the different point effects over time. Evidence from six European countries supports the...