Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However,...

Due to the high importance of the American economy, in the past, announcements of US macroeconomic data were shown to have a significant impact on financial markets in general, and on European stock markets in particular. However, as this effect may vary in time, this paper examines the changes...