Against the background of the recent housing boom and bust in countries such as Spain and Ireland, we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard two-region...

Against the background of the recent housing boom and bust in countries such as Spain and Ireland, we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard two-region...

Against the background of the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances within the European Monetary Union (EMU), we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard...

This paper studies the dynamics of sovereign risk, fiscal policy and the macroeconomy in a two-country monetary union framework under the assumption of a heterogeneous perception of the determinants of sovereign risk by the government and the market participants. The macroeconomic volatility...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...

This paper studies the implications of heterogeneous capital gain expectations on output andasset prices. We consider a disequilibrium macroeconomic model where agents' expectations on future capital gains affect aggregate demand. Agents' beliefs take two forms - fundamentalist and chartist -...

We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...

While the COVID-19 pandemic posits a significant challenge to all societies around the world, it also reveals in the most dramatic manner the many abysmal differences between so-called advanced economies and the developing world.

Against the background of the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances within the European Monetary Union (EMU), we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate in an otherwise standard...