Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed...

Anchored inflation expectations are of key importance for monetary policy. If long-terminflation expectations arewell-anchored, they should be unaffected by short-termeconomic news. This letter introduces newsregressions with multiple endogenous breaks to investigate the de- and re-anchoring of...

The present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT): the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is...

We assess whether euro area inflation expectations, as measured by break-even inflation rates (BEIRs), have remained anchored during the financial crisis. Since autumn 2008, the volatility of BEIRs has increased considerably. We treat observed BEIRs as a sum of `genuine BEIRs' and additional...

In the academic literature, the economic interpretation of stock market volatility is inherently ambivalent, being considered an indicator of either information flow or uncertainty. We show in a stylized model economy that both views suggest volatility-dependent cross-market spillovers. If...

After the introduction of a stabilization program Israeli inflation decreased from 400% in 1985 to 2% in 2013. This paper analyzes how the remarkable transition process of Israel’s disinflation took place. We reinforce the existing hypothesis that inflationmoved in distinct steps characterized...