uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related … to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk … possible. In general, tests for macroeconomic risk forecast optimality tend to have at best moderate power given the …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg …-indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real-time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

forecasts based on pooled and individual estimates and develop a novel forecast poolability test that can be used as a … stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage … methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …