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. Uncertainty about the future rate of growth of the economy and emissions and the risk of macroeconomic disasters (tail risks) also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249287
The precise consequences of climate change remain uncertain. We incorporate damage uncertainty into a joint model of … analyze uncertainty by means of sensitivity analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations. These methods have serious limitations in … deriving a carbon tax or cap under uncertainty: they do not incorporate the interaction between stochastic climate impacts and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081380
Weitzman's Dismal Theorem has that the expected net present value of a stock problem with a stochastic growth rate with unknown variance is unbounded. Cost-benefit analysis can therefore not be applied to greenhouse gas emission control. We use the Generalized Central Limit Theorem to show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486424
uncertainty. The paper derives the resulting changes of the risk-free and the stochastic social discount rate and points out the … recent debate and the models on climate change assessment. First, removing an implicit assumption of (intertemporal) risk … neutrality reduces the growth effect in social discounting and significantly amplifies the importance of risk and correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122022
that stochastic technology growth hardly affects the optimal bundle of mitigation and adaptation whereas uncertainty about … composition of the optimal mix as both persuade the risk-averse social planner to invest more in mitigation. Overall, we identify … that including uncertainty into the model tends to favour (long-lasting) mitigation with respect to (instantaneous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451547
from climate change to damages is subject to uncertainty, as opposed to risk, and we use robust control to study efficiency …We study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which agents are concerned about model uncertainty regarding … growth in the presence and in the absence of concerns about model uncertainty, and find that these can lead to substantially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011800911
involve issues such as the discount rate, uncertainty, the social cost of carbon, the potential for catastrophic climate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014025275
We use perturbation methods to derive a rule for the optimal risk-adjusted social cost of carbon (SCC) that … different aversions to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, convex damages, uncertainties in economic growth, atmospheric carbon …-run climate feedbacks. Our non-certainty-equivalent rule for the SCC incorporates precaution, risk insurance, and climate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011996310
We show that several of the most important economic models of climate change produce climate dynamics inconsistent with the current crop of models in climate science. First, most economic models exhibit far too long a delay between an impulse of CO2 emissions and warming. Second, few economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012171780
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012498226