Showing 91 - 100 of 253
Using readily available indicators of the profitability, price, and availability of credit—the term spread, junk‐bond spread, and banks’ “willingness to lend” as reported by the Federal Reserve—we show that it is possible to significantly improve on the real‐time output and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011005995
In this paper, we estimate the time-varying response of foreign stock markets to U.S. monetary policy shocks derived from the high-frequency Federal funds futures market. Our results show significant time-variation in the response of the global equity markets to U.S. monetary policy surprises,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010747593
This paper studies data revision properties of GDP growth and inflation as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the Indian economy. We find that data revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation in India are significant. The results show that revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005040699
This paper studies the role of the real money gap- the deviation of real money balance from its long-run equilibrium level- for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that the real money gap is a significant predictor of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005040709
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005716844
The strong consumption growth in a period of falling stock market and a moderate recession in the U.S. has sparked off a debate about the role of housing wealth as one of the determinants of consumption. The literature is divided over the issue whether the effect of change in the financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702625
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010597838
This paper studies data revision properties of GDP growth and inflation for the Indian economy. The results show that revisions to GDP growth and inflation are significant, and cannot be characterized as either containing pure news or pure noise. We also find that there is a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008867186
We undertake a real-time VAR analysis of the usefulness of the term spread, the junk-bond spread, the ISM's New Orders Index, and broker/dealer equity for predicting growth in non-farm employment. To get around the "apples and oranges" problem described by Koenig, Dolmas and Piger (2003), we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008739769
We show that Howrey’s method for producing economic forecasts when data are subject to revision is easily generalized to handle the case where data are produced by a sophisticated statistical agency. The proposed approach assumes that government estimates are efficient with a finite lag. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010690862