We ask whether option prices contain information on the likelihood and direction of jumps in the underlying stock prices. Applying the partial least squares (PLS) approach to the entire surface of the implied volatilities (IV), we show that option prices can successfully predict downward jumps...

In this paper, we focus on short-time asymptotics for American options in the case of local and stochastic volatility models. As a by-product, we obtain an efficient algorithm for calibrating Dupire's local volatility to American options, starting from an arbitrage-free parametrization of a...