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Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs

Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526

Types of uncertainty and probability : some remarks

Dequech, David - In: Journal of Post Keynesian economics 46 (2023) 3, pp. 440-449

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391547

On Keynes's probability and uncertainty

Carabelli, Anna M. - In: Journal of Post Keynesian economics 46 (2023) 3, pp. 465-492

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391550

Poverty and uncertainty attitudes

Gonzalez Jimenez, Victor H. - 2024

This paper demonstrates that well-established biases in decision making under uncertainty can generate poverty traps. A theoretical framework is developed to demonstrate that: i) probability weighting and ambiguity attitude can lead individuals to erroneously undervalue profitable investments,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015062969

Robust portfolio choice with CVaR and VaR under distribution and mean return ambiguity

Paç, A. Burak; Pınar, Mustafa Ç. - In: Top : transactions in operations research 22 (2014) 3, pp. 875-891

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437113

Uncertainty versus randomness : minimizing model dependence

Wilmott, Paul - In: International journal of theoretical and applied finance 3 (2000) 3, pp. 493-500

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001523034

Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling, Second Version

Gilboa, Itzhak - 2008

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012725715

High Model Uncertainty and Approximating Combined Distributions

Choobchian, Pooria - 2019

reduce the computational burden. This consists of proving a sequential update formula that estimates different moments of the … combined distribution and a finite moment problem that reconstructs the distribution from the moments. Based on an example on … the determinants of long-run economic growth, we show that tracking the first four moments of the combined distribution …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869290

Tail risk and robust portfolio decisions

Jin, Xing; Luo, Dan; Zeng, Xudong - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 67 (2021) 5, pp. 3254-3275

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012581376

Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility

Gong, Xiao-Li; Lu, Jin-Yan; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei - In: Financial innovation : FIN 8 (2022), pp. 1-22

Sudden and uncertain events often cause cross-contagion of risk among various sectors of the macroeconomy. This paper … uncertainty risk on macroeconomics. Then, the high-dimensional DSGE model (DSGE-SV-t) is developed to examine the impact of … uncertainty risk on the transmission mechanism among macroeconomic sectors. The empirical research found that uncertainty risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272633