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Much ado about nothing? : the shale oil revolution and the global supply curve

Foroni, Claudia; Stracca, Livio - 2019

We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. We begin with a stylized model with two producers, one facing low production costs and one higher production costs but potentially lower adjustment costs, competing á la Stackelberg. We find that the supply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059007

How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?

Geiger, Martin; Güntner, Jochen - 2019

We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009877

Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete information : revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks : comment

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2018

Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882307

Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification : revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks

Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. - 2017 - Revised December 21, 2017

Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782040

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks

Plante, Michael - 2015

exogenous supply shocks and a productivity driven demand shock. When wages are flexible, stabilizing core inflation is optimal … and the nominal rate rises (falls) in response to a demand (supply) shock. When both prices and wages are sticky, core … inflation falls (rises) in response to the demand (supply) shock. Stabilizing CPI inflation generates small welfare losses only …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014204813

Effect of Oil Price Shocks in the U.S. For 1985-2004, Using VAR, Mixed Dynamic and Granger Causality Approaches

Al-Rjoub, Samer A. M. - 2008

show similar evidence. They suggest that oil shock negatively affect the stock market returns in the U.S. Oil prices …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014215557

Importance of Oil Shocks and the GCC Macroeconomy : A Structural VAR Analysis

Nasir, Muhammad Ali; Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam; … - 2019

This study is an endeavour to analyse the influence of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy of the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) member countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, KSA, Oman, Qatar and UAE). By employing a structural Vector auto-regression(SVAR) model for period 1980–2016, our key findings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014107050

Understanding the global drivers of inflation : how important are oil prices?

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2023

This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over the 1970-2022 period. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. We report three main...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013488859

Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks on real oil prices

Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2023

role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially … replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three … major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014295388

The impact of China's economic growth on crude oil price : evidence from structural VAR

Hamendi, Ahmed; Hook, Law Siong - In: Review of Economic Analysis : REA 15 (2023) 3/4, pp. 237-252

This paper examines the impact of Chinese economic growth on the real price of crude oil based on monthly time series data from 1992:01 to 2017:06 using structural vector auto-regression (SVAR). The variables of the SVAR model are global crude oil production, index of global economic activity,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014481185