Extensive research demonstrates that war casualties depress incumbent popularity. The present study argues that … warfare either directly affect presidential popularity (e.g., in the Korean War) or their inclusion affects the predicted … political cost of war casualties (e.g., in the Korean and Iraq/Afghanistan Wars). Interestingly, the adverse effect of war …

presidential address was in part intended as an announcement towards ending the Iraq War, it specifically denoted the official end … should civil war breaks out …