The purpose of this paper is the determination of sources and pattern of business cycle in Turkey throughout the period 1988-2002 using quarterly data. The question of the paper is "Has financial liberalization increased the fragility of the financial and real sides of the Turkish economy?". The...

We empirically analyze asset price boom-bust cycles over a long-run period of 1896-2014 for the U.S., the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. We focus on macro-financial linkages to understand if these are common phenomena during financial crises, or if the linkage was simply amplified during the...

We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...

The outcome of the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union in June 2016 was largely unanticipated by politicians and pundits alike. Even after the "Leave" vote, the uncertainty surrounding the withdrawal process might have affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of...

This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different "theories" of business fluctuations. With different theoretical...

We use monthly data on individual loans from the Italian Credit Register over the period from 1997 to 2019 and show that bank credit expansions in the non-financial private sector are mostly explained by variations in the extensive margin calculated either in credit ows or headcount of new...

Commercial banks across the world have been implementing the Basel III accord, which is the most important international response to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Particularly, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced by the Basel III accord is the first global standard for banking...

After the recent banking crisis in 2008, financial market conditions have turned out to be a relevant factor for economic fluctuations. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of financial frictions on the U.S. business cycle. The analysis compares the original Smets and...

Since the 1980s, financial crises have tended to reoccur with increasing frequency and growing intensity. They are endogenously generated by the established OTD (Originate-To-Distribute) model within the new finance-growth paradigm. Good finance fosters the correct allocation of financial...

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the speed of buildup of private debt (household and corporate) and the depth of recessions. To do this, we differentiate between financial recessions and normal recessions on the basis of how quickly their private debt builds up. In...