We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features observed in the data, in particular, the clustering of high default...

The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established to promote the exports of low-income countries to industrialized countries in order to support their economic growth and development. However, the design of these schemes is rather complex and the e¤ects of GSP have been found to be...

We argue against the view that it is mostly the peaks of the empirical densities of stock returns (and of other risky returns as well) that set such data aside from ‘normal’ variables. We show that peaks depend on sample size and on the way returns are standardized, and that for given data...

Classical parametric estimation methods applied to nonlinear regression and limited-dependent-variable models are very sensitive to misspecification and data errors. On the other hand, semiparametric and nonparametric methods, which are not restricted by parametric assumptions, require more data...

It is common practice to identify the number and sources of shocks that move implied volatilities across space and time by applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to pooled covariance matrices of changes in implied volatilities. This approach, however, is likely to result in a loss of...

We propose a general framework to assess merger policy effectiveness based on standard oligopoly theory and stock market reactions. We focus on four different dimensions of effectiveness: 1) legal certainty, 2) decision errors, 3) reversion of anti-competitive rents, and 4) deterrence. We apply...

In einer im Mai 2010 von der Wirtschaftsfördergesellschaft Vorpommern mbH (WFG) in Zusammenarbeit mit kreislichen und städtischen Wirtschaftsförderern sowie der Fachhochschule Stralsund, Fachbereich Wirtschaft, durchgeführten branchenübergreifenden Unternehmensbefragung zur Zufriedenheit...

Our paper addresses firm size as a driver of systematic credit risk in loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Key contributions are the use of a unique data set of SME lending by over 400 German banks and relating systematic risk to the size dependence of regulatory capital requirements....

The globalisation on financial markets and the development of financial derivatives has increased not only chances but also potential risk within the banking industry. Especially market risk has gained major significance since market price variation of interest rates, stocks or exchange rates...

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights. Building on the work of Ranjan and Gneiting (2010) and...