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In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288149
choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low … international reserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policy combination with a greater … degree of policy divergence. Yet this heightened output volatility effect does not apply to economies with relatively high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288150
neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated with a given public debt/GDP increase with the future volatility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288164
production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288244
Using data from 1980 to 2004, we show that greater fiscal policy volatility acts as a transmission mechanism for the … resource curse. Resource exports dominate political and institutional variables as determinants of fiscal policy volatility …, with fiscal policy volatility being a significant determinant of growth. The existence of a resource curse is confirmed, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288484
We show that two models of the labor market, a Walrasian model and a labor contracting model, both have an approximate dynamic factor structure. We use this result to motivate our empirical approach to estimating the cyclical properties of real wages, which does not impose any structure between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288748
A Real Business Cycle model of the UK is developed to account for the behaviour of UK nonstationary macro data. The model is tested by the method of indirect inference, bootstrapping the errors to generate 95% confidence limits for a VECM representation of the data; we find the model can explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288799
This paper explores the implications of time varying volatility for optimal monetary policy and the measurement of … to study optimal monetary policy under inflation conditional volatility and find that the quadratic component of the …-2010 underline the statistical significance of inflation-dependent UK macroeconomic volatility. Analysis of the welfare losses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288810
growth volatility over the period 19501998. We find that a transition from pro-cyclical to countercyclical fiscal policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288816
In a seminal study Hodrick et al. (1991) evaluate the ability of a simple cash-credit model to produce realistic variability in consumption velocity while at the same time successfully explaining other key statistics. Sufficient variability in the latter is found to be associated with far too...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288842