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this information improves density forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938238
-tenor dependencies of yields. The suggested forecasting approach accounts for these dependencies and thus targets the new features of … forecasting horizons. In particular, it clearly outperforms existing single-curve forecasting methods which naturally omit any …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850478
forecasting. To do so, we develop a general estimation approach to incorporate volatility proxy information into dynamic factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210358
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764768
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uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014196386