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There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline … in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely … explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short-run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382056
A remarkable feature of the crude oil market is a dramatic rise in oil price volatility over time which has been … accompanied by a substantial fall in oil production volatility. We investigate the sources of this opposite evolution of both oil … market variables. Our main finding is that the observed volatility puzzle can be rationalized by the fact that the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156448
In this work, we test the price sensitivity of sector indices to changes in the oil price over the period 2001 to 2021 … of the explanatory variables and show a non-linear relationship between the prices of oil and sector indices. Furthermore …, the results show that fluctuations in oil prices do not have a statistically significant impact on West African sectoral …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348440
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components – a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106064
patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771984
We compare the economic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are … structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in their economy. We find considerably … different effects across countries, which crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift. For oil demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008808233
This paper examines the impact of different types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, using a factor-augmented VAR … (FAVAR) approach. The results indicate that when examining the effects of oil price shocks, it is important to account for … the interaction between the oil market and the macroeconomy. I find that oil demand shocks are more important than oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081472
We compare the economic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are … structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in their economy. We find considerably … different effects across countries, which crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift. For oil demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013068762
The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds … this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92 ….8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945690
This paper proposes a novel approach to study the macroeconomic effects of oil prices, exploiting institutional … identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to … an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production and an increase in inventories. This has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852221