We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the...

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the...

We provide new evidence on the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in aggregate real economic activity in the US using a multiple-horizon Granger causality framework, while allowing for infrequent shifts in mean levels and growth rates of the system variables. Our empirical investigation...

Previous studies have shown that linear models are incapable of capturing business cycle dynamics with accuracy. This has brought interest in non-linear models such as the Markov switching (MS) regime technique, which can distinguish business cycle recession and expansion phases, and is...

This paper argues that the impact of monetary policy shocks can interact with the financial environment, in particular with financial uncertainty, making monetary policy's effectiveness state dependent. To that end, we implement a smooth transition VAR model to examine monetary policy shocks, in...

The purpose of this paper is to present an approach with regard to the dynamic process of the general equilibrium during the business cycle fluctuations following monetary and fiscal interventions, which, I think, could contribute to bridging the differences between the different schools of...

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

We provide new evidence on the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in aggregate real economic activity in the US using a multiple-horizon Granger causality framework, while allowing for infrequent shifts in mean levels and growth rates of the system variables. Our empirical investigation...

This study analyzes the cyclical behaviour of the default rates of Italian bank borrowers over the last two decades. A vector autoregression (VAR) modelling technique is employed to assess the extent to which macroeconomic shocks affect the banking sector (first round effect). The VAR also helps...