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Upswing in a Subdued Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

Fichtner, Ferdinand; Baldi, Guido; Bremus, Franziska; … - In: DIW Economic Bulletin 5 (2015) 11, pp. 151-157

The German economy continues to recover, and will grow by 2.2 percent in 2015 and by 1.9 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate will further decline, to 6.4 percent this year and 6.1percent in 2016. Inflation, which averages 0.5 percent this year, will be substantially dampened by the slump in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011204434

Meta-analysis of Chinese business cycle correlation

Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka - Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos, Suomen Pankki - 2015

We summarize previous research on China’s business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011204440

Monetary policy transmission in China: A DSGE model with parallel shadow banking and interest rate control

Funke, Michael; Mihaylovski, Petar; Zhu, Haibin - Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos, Suomen Pankki - 2015

The paper sheds light on the interplay between monetary policy, the commercial banking sector and the shadow banking sector in mainland China by means of a nonlinear stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with occasionally binding constraints. In particular, we analyze the impacts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011204441

Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa

Redl, Chris - Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) - 2015

This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South Africa for the period 1990-2014 and analyses the macroeconomic impact of changes in this measure. The index is constructed from three sources: (1) Disagreement among professional forecasters about macroeconomic conditions using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011204514

Ownership networks and aggregate volatility

Burlon, Lorenzo - Banca d'Italia - 2015

We study how aggregate volatility is influenced by the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks across firms through the network of ownership relations. We use detailed data on cross-holdings as well as the relevant balance sheet information for almost the entire universe of Italian limited liability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206253

The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles with Heterogeneous Trading Technologies

Chien, YiLi - In: Review 97 (2015) 1, pp. 67-85

The author investigates the welfare cost of business cycles in an economy where households have heterogeneous trading … business cycles. Put simply, the heterogeneity in trading technologies amplifies the effect of aggregate output fluctuation on … consumption inequality. The welfare cost of business cycles is, therefore, larger in such an economy. In the benchmark economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206257

How Cyclical Is Bank Capital?

Haubrich, Joseph - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2015

The alleged pro-cyclicality of bank capital (high in good times, low in bad) has received some blame for the recent financial crisis. Others blame the countercyclicality of capital regulations: too low in high times and too high in bad. To address this problem, Basel III has introduced...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206261

A quantitative analysis of the u.s. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis

Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2015

We present a model of long-duration collateralized debt with risk of default. Applied to the housing market, it can match the homeownership rate, the average foreclosure rate, and the lower tail of the distribution of home-equity ratios across homeowners prior to the recent crisis. We stress the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206262

Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles

Azariadis, Costas; Wen, 文一; Kaas, Leo - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2015

In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. In this paper we develop a tractable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206263

Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.; Grasl, Tobias; Smith, … - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2015

We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206271