While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health...

Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive...

This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries, central bank holdings of dollar reserves are...

We study how terminated correspondent banking relationships affect international trade. Drawing on firm-level export data from emerging Europe, we show that when local banks lose access to correspondent services, their corporate clients experience significant export declines. This trade...

Eine wissenschaftliche Verortung von Fair Trade, dem Versuch, beim Import aus Entwicklungsländern stärker soziale und ökologische Kriterien zur Geltung zu bringen, in der Theorie und Politik des Außenhandels. (Siegfried Lörcher)