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After a comparative study of the Lee-Carter forecasting method and looking into the direct extrapolation of mortality … procedures in order to improve its efficiency in the short run and preclude implausible mortality patterns in the long run. The …, when the mortality dynamics exhibit a steady trend. In the long run, the rates of the decline in mortality are assumed to …
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Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...
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