In the postglobal financial crisis period, the central banks of the advanced economies pursued unconventional monetary policies, such as the United States (US) Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE). Those policies and their unwinding may significantly affect cross-border capital flows and...

We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a reduction in economic growth,...

In this study, we examine how public and private debt buildup is related to currency depreciation pressure. Our empirical analysis of a panel dataset of 59 advanced and emerging markets reveals that both private and public debt exacerbate currency vulnerability. However, the evidence of a...

More than 20 years after the Asian financial crisis, the region's continued high reliance on United States (US) dollar-denominated funding has significant implications for the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic circumstances. Given limited...

This paper simulates the impact of a short-term shock originating from the global financial system on small open economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The simulation uses empirically estimated general equilibrium models for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and...

One of developing Asia's foremost structural economic challenges is the need to rebalance demand and growth toward domestic sources in the face of one of its most significant structural shifts - the demographic transition to an older population. The scope for investment-led growth may be quite...

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock markets for eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. On average across these countries, a one percentage point surprise...

The insulating properties of flexible exchange rates have long been a highly contentious issue in emerging markets - not least in Asian emerging markets. A number of recent theoretical and empirical studies question whether a trade-off exists between rigid exchange rate regimes and insulation...

This paper aims at identifying effective macroprudential policy (MPP) interventions and analysing the macroeconomic conditions that promote them. We define effective MPP interventions as those that stabilize its underlying target variable, such as credit growth, house price growth, etc. For our...