The paper investigates the emergence of complex market expectations (opinion dynamics) around nominal exchange rate adjustments using a macro-financial model of a small open economy featuring heterogeneous expectation formation (chartists and fundamentalists) and gradual adjustment processes in...

In this paper we study the implications of the present broad banking system for macroeconomic stability. We show that when commercial banks are allowed to trade in financial assets (here equities) as a substitute for traditional lending, the macroeconomic system is likely to be an unstable one....

In this paper the role of different types of labor market frictions in the dynamics of output and inflation is investigated. For this purpose, the Keynes–Goodwin model discussed in Chen et al. (2006) and Franke et al. (2006) is extended by a labor search and matching module along the lines of...

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity...

In this paper we propose a composite indicator for real-time recession forecasting based on alternative dynamic probit models. For this purpose, we use a large set of monthly macroeconomic and financial leading indicators from the German and US economies. Alternative dynamic probit regressions...

We present a simple macrodynamic model of the real-financial markets inter action with a dynamic multiplier representing the goods market and a structured portfolio choice between money holdings and equities. This is contrasted with Blanchard’s (1981) alternative approach, where...

Using parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques, we analyze the sustainability of the recently growing current account imbalances in the Euro Area and test whether the introduction of the European Monetary Union has aggravated these imbalances. For these purposes two alternative...