Der IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport beschäftigt sich mit internationalen und nationalen Entwicklungen, die eine Bedrohung für die Stabilität des Finanzsystems darstellen. Aktuell gehören zu diesen Entwicklungen die hohe Verschuldung im chinesischen Unternehmenssektor und der hohe Anteil...

In this paper we investigate the risk-related effects of monetary policy in normal times, as well as in periods where the zero lower bound (ZLB) binds, in a stylized macroeconomic model with boundedly rational beliefs. In our model, financial market participants use heuristics to assess the risk...

In this paper we study the implementation of a state-dependent inflation target in a two-country monetary union model characterized by boundedly rational agents. In particular, we use the spread between the actual policy rate (which is constrained by the zero-lower-bound) and the Taylor rate...

In this paper a dynamic probit model for recession forecasing under pseudo-real time is set up using a large set of macroeconomic and financial monthly indicators for Germany. Using different initial sets of explanatory variables, alternative dynamic probit specifications are obtained through an...

This paper studies the dynamics of macroeconomic risk, fiscal policy and the macroeconomy in a two-country monetary union framework, under the assumption that agents do not have rational expectations, but use heuristics to determine their consumption over time, as well as to assess macroeconomic...

The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as...

While the COVID-19 pandemic posits a significant challenge to all societies around the world, it also reveals in the most dramatic manner the many abysmal differences between so-called advanced economies and the developing world.