Der IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport beschäftigt sich mit internationalen und nationalen Entwicklungen, die eine Bedrohung für die Stabilität des Finanzsystems darstellen. Aktuell gehören zu diesen Entwicklungen die hohe Verschuldung im chinesischen Unternehmenssektor und der hohe Anteil...

We develop a stock-flow-consistent macroeconomic model with an agent-based focus on corporate credit markets, including a securitization process. Against the background of increased corporate indebtedness, our interest is in quantifying contagion effects that endogenously arise from corporate...

In this paper a dynamic probit model for recession forecasing under pseudo-real time is set up using a large set of macroeconomic and financial monthly indicators for Germany. Using different initial sets of explanatory variables, alternative dynamic probit specifications are obtained through an...

This paper studies the dynamics of macroeconomic risk, fiscal policy and the macroeconomy in a two-country monetary union framework, under the assumption that agents do not have rational expectations, but use heuristics to determine their consumption over time, as well as to assess macroeconomic...

The dichotomous characterization of the business cycle in recessions and expansions has been central in the literature over the last fifty years. However, there are various reasons to question the adequacy of this dichotomous approach for our understanding of business cycle dynamics, as well as...

In this paper the role of behavioral forecasting rules of chartist and fun-damentalist type for the dynamic macroeconomic stability of a two-country system is investigated both analytically and numerically. The main result of the paper is that for large trend-chasing parameters in the chartist...