Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...

European economic integration is commonly believed to be incomplete, and that further reforms are needed. In this context, the union of U.S. states is considered the benchmark of complete economic integration and is often the basis for comparison regarding the extent of E.U economic integration....

This paper breaks down the distributional analysis of firm growth rates to the domain of regions. Extreme growth events, i.e. fat tails, are conceptualized as an indicator of competitive regional environments which enable processes like structural adaptation or technological re-orientation. An...

In the context of polarized societies, income homogeneity is linked to the frequency and the intensity of social unrest. Most homogenous countries exhibit a lower frequency of intense social conflicts and less homogeneous countries show a higher frequency of moderate social conflicts. This paper...

The technique of using densities and conditional distributions to carry out consistent specification testing and model selection amongst multiple diffusion processes have received considerable attention from both financial theoreticians and empirical econometricians over the last two decades....

Both unconditional mixed-normal distributions and GARCH models with fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employed for modeling financial return data. We consider a mixed-normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure which allows for conditional variance in each of the...