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We show that systemic risk in the banking sector breeds macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a model of a production …-driven uncertainty amplifies business cycle volatility and increases risk premia on asset prices. A countercyclical capital buffer lowers …
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Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997-2011, this paper fails to find evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the small business lending channel is an important determinant of small business or overall economic activity. The shift-share style...
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We estimate the effect of the reduction in credit supply that followed the 2008 financial crisis on the real economy. We predict county lending shocks using variation in pre-crisis bank market shares and estimated bank supply-shifts. Counties with negative predicted shocks experienced declines...
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