The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its … GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive …

In this paper, we develop a framework for measuring, allocating and managing systemic risk. SystRisk, our measure of … total systemic risk, captures the a priori cost to society for providing tail-risk insurance to the financial system. Our … allocation principle distributes the total systemic risk among individual institutions according to their size-shifted marginal …