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ihrer Prognosen eine fundamentale Analyse in den Vordergrund, die im spekulativen Umfeld des Devisenmarktes auf kurze bis …
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The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by profes-sional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hy-pothesis. This dismal result is...
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effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and … panel cointegration techniques to derive fully countryspecific measures of misalignment and measures based on panel … estimates. We formally test the forecast performance of pooled vs. heterogeneous estimators over a hold-back period and find …
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