We use data on new apartment offerings in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil to illustrate our main claim that the hedonic direct method using time dummies as well as the simple average method include cyclical behavior of observables and non observables in a house price index that may...

The 2001 recession differed from other recent recessions in its cause, severity, and scope. Professional forecasters found this recession difficult to forecast. A few leading indicators (stock prices, term spreads, unemployment claims) predicted that growth would slow, but none predicted the...