In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to...

In this paper we use the behavioural and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches to produce long-run equilibrium exchange rates for the effective real exchange rates of the New Zealand dollar. We demonstrate that a well founded measure of the equilibrium value of the dollar may be...

This paper empirically examines the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate (RERI) differentials over the recent floating exchange rate period. A panel cointegration estimator is applied to a data set of 14 industrialized countries. In contrast to much other...

We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates, by comparing the unit root properties of a group of international real exchange rates with two groups of intranational real exchange rates. Strikingly, we find that while the international real rates taken as a group appear mean...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters...