Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. The literature on these views is surveyed, followed by...

We reexamine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from several perspectives, using monthly data on the deutsche mark-U.S. dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique, we reject the restrictions imposed on the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model....

This paper uses consumption patterns across countries to measure capital market integration. It argues that earlier empirical tests of this type were potentially misspecified and proposes a more robust specification. The results indicate that Japan was the only industrialized country for which...

[fre] The Efficiency of CAC Stock. Price Forecasts. A Survey Based Perspective. . Dans cet article, nous nous proposons d'analyser les problèmes relatifs à l'anticipation des cours boursiers en utilisant les réponses à une enquête qualitative sur l'indice général CAC. Nous examinons la...

This paper investigates the (break) stationarity null hypothesis using data for 25 interest rates with different maturities and risk characteristics in Canada and the US. In contrast to a large part of the literature, this paper reports strong empirical evidence in favour of the null hypothesis...

We propose an alterative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration...

This paper provides a new perspective of fiscal sustainability and financial globalization in emerging and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature....

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in...