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During the last crisis, developed economies' sovereign Credit Default Swap (hereafter CDS) premia have gained in importance as a tool for approximating credit risk. In this paper, we fit a dynamic factor model to decompose the sovereign CDS spreads of ten OECD economies into three components: a...
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) not all crises are equal: evidence for repatriation during banking and currency crises is more limited; and (iii) the … uniquely suited to analyzing investor base dynamics during rare crises due to its large cross-section and time series, covering …
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This study develops an early warning signal (EWS) of government debt crisis using a panel data consisting of 43 developing countries over the period of 1960 to 2017. It employs two different methods: the noise to signal ratio to capture the signaling power of individual indicators; and the...
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