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theory-conform conclusions in actual data do so in our experimental data. We infer that less empirical evidence may … contradict canonical international macro theory than previously understood. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069881
assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent … consequences jointly, and most are based on single country models. We analyze the special case of a shock restricted to the Euro … for all countries over a period of roughly a year following an uncertainty shock. Moreover, equity prices, short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978764
This paper employs a large BVAR model with common stochastic volatility to examine the effects of oil supply shocks, global oil demand shocks and precautionary oil shocks on 17 U.S. macroeconomic and financial market variables from 1986Q1 to 2019Q2. Generalized impulse response functions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249741
underline the importance of the source of an oil shock for its macroeconomic consequences. Oil supply shocks have been less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315918
response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012289734
We use survey data to study how consumers assess the macroeconomic effects of structural oil market shocks on the U.S. economy using vector autoregressive models. To structurally decompose oil price changes, we impose sign restrictions on impulse responses. We find that the survey respondents'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011875751
principal foreign drivers of the Nigerian business cycle. The global demand shock elicits the strongest responses from output … growth and inflation; while oil price shock impacts the terms-of-trade and interest rate the most. The historical … of oil price shock to inflation and interest rate is dominant. Further sensitivity analysis of pre-crisis period of 2008 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178167
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252317
Sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries. Moreover, the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries. While several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014061476
In this paper we analyse to what extent movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany. We proceed in several steps: As a starting point we use a standard real business cycle model for the German economy and introduce energy as an additional factor in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014027648