-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

I make inferences about complicated patterns of structural breaks in inflation dynamics. I extend Chib's (1998 … breaks are modeled as abrupt changes to identify potential regime shifts in economic structure such as a long-run inflation … target, monetary policy, and price-setting behavior. I consider postwar quarterly U.S. inflation rates based on the CPI and …