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Inflation targeting and price-level-path targeting in the GEM: Some open economy considerations
Coletti, Donald; Lalonde, René; Muir, Dirk - 2008
This paper compares the performance of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price-level path targeting (PLPT) rules to stabilize the macroeconomy, in response to a series of shocks, similar to those seen in Canada and the United States over the 1983 to 2004 period. The analysis is conducted in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279982
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Short-term inflation forecasting models for Nigeria
Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN Journal of Applied Statistics 04 (2013) 3, pp. 1-29
Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and … relatively bad. For forecast of food inflation up to ten months ahead SARIMA is recommended, but for eleven to twelve months … ahead the SARIMAX model performs better. However, the SARIMA model for core inflation consistently outperforms the SARIMAX …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518779
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Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markes with macro forecasting
Männistö, Hanna-Leena - 2005
To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New-Keynesian model and calibrated it to euro area data.It was essential in this context that we allowed for long-run growth in GDP.We brought additional asset price equations based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147950
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Inflation targeting and price-level-path targeting in the GEM : some open economy considerations
Coletti, Donald (contributor); Lalonde, René (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper compares the performance of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price-level path targeting (PLPT) rules to stabilize the macroeconomy, in response to a series of shocks, similar to those seen in Canada and the United States over the 1983 to 2004 period. The analysis is conducted in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711669
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Commodities and monetary policy : implications for inflation and price level targeting
Coletti, Donald; Lalonde, René; Masson, Paul R.; Muir, Dirk - 2012
We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important consequences for global commodity prices. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009546871
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Price dispersion and inflation : new facts and theoretical implications
Sheremirov, Viacheslav - 2015 - This version: July 2015; first version: November 2013
In macroeconomic models, the level of price dispersion - which is typically approximated through its relationship with inflation - is a central determinant of welfare, the cost of business cycles, the optimal rate of inflation, and the tradeoff between inflation and output stability. While the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349290
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OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis : a post mortem
Pain, Nigel; Lewis, Christine; Dang, Thai Thanh; Jin, Yosuke - 2014
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
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Short-term inflation forecasting models for Nigeria
Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 4 (2013) 3, pp. 1-29
Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and … relatively bad. For forecast of food inflation up to ten months ahead SARIMA is recommended, but for eleven to twelve months … ahead the SARIMAX model performs better. However, the SARIMA model for core inflation consistently outperforms the SARIMAX …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488735
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Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics
Bermingham, Colin; D'Agostino, Antonello - 2011
The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238003
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Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237