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This paper proposes a forecasting model that combines a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology with the Nelson and Siegel (NS) parametrization of the yield curve to predict the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Importantly, we extract the principal components for the FAVAR from a...
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article aims to investigate the effect of investor sentiment as a systematic risk factor on speculative bond yield spreads … period extends from January 1997 to August 2014. In the VAR models, speculative bond spreads and consumer confidence index … period sentiment. Empirical findings imply that investor sentiment is a systematic risk factor in risky bond markets. …
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