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best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their … forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134964
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the micro foundations of how non-experts' (or general public) form inflation expectations. Using a unique dataset we investigate the range of near rational inflation expectations. An important contribution to understanding how non-experts form their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098048
We allow a strategic trader to choose when to acquire information about an asset's payoff, instead of endowing her with it. When the trader dynamically controls the precision of a flow of information, the optimal precision evolves stochastically and increases with market liquidity. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897901
function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425217
data of exchange-rate forecasts look rational, and the loss function seems to depend not only on the forecast error. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425218
the next draw as a forecast. We find that most of the forecasters report point predictions that are close to one of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
I study the question of how much product information should be available to consumers. A monopolist sells one unit of product. The consumer is initially uninformed of the product value but can incur costs to observe a noisy signal of his valuation. I show that consumer surplus can be increasing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910800
We study committees that acquire information, deliberate and vote. A member cares about state-dependent decision payoffs and about his reputation for expertise. The state remains unobserved, even after the decision has been taken. In such inconclusive environments, in equilibrium, a member's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012898263