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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001833591
We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rule-based reasoning. This unified framework allows us to examine, positively or normatively, how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122230
Reliability has been largely applied to industrial systems in order to study the various possibilities of systems … yielding any system's fault allows for a better control of systems' safety. To this end, reliability is composed of a static … explains that fault tree is one alternative approach of reliability, which matches default risk analysis in a simple framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157714
This paper reports on the latest update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2007: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723979
People reason about real-estate prices both in terms of general rules and in terms of analogies to similar cases. We propose to empirically test which mode of reasoning fits the data better. To this end, we develop the statistical techniques required for the estimation of the case-based model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012785355
Prediction market prices are often used as estimates of the probability of outcomes in future elections and referendums. I argue that this practice is often flawed, and I develop a model that empiricists can use to partially identify probabilities from prediction market prices. In the special...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968616
To avert the impending global Cyber-Finance Insurance Crisis based upon large-scale commercial reliance upon quantitative models with inherent model risks, tail risks, and systemic risks in current form, this post-doctoral thesis makes the following key contributions: Develops the first known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972233
The IRS's audit enforcement policy is based on the principle that audits deter taxpayers from cheating and therefore increase voluntary tax compliance. For more than forty years, however, there has been considerable debate over whether higher audit rates actually contribute to increased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006770
A model for the approximation of enterprise-level crop yields under climate change is proposed which integrates economic and agronomic notions of crop production. The model is potentially useful to policy makers, since it could provide an estimate of the yield volume that can be expected to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862173
A forbidden zones theorem, mathematical approach and model are proposed in the present article. In particular, the approach supposes that people decide as if there were some biases of the expectations of measurement data. The article is motivated by the need of a theoretical support for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920053