This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider agents facing a data generating process who are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate subjective considerations....

A possibility of the existence of a discontinuity of Prelec’s (probability weighting) function W(p) at the probability p = 1 is discussed. This possibility is supported by the Aczél–Luce question whether Prelec’s weighting function W(p) is equal to 1 at p = 1, by the purely mathematical...

A need for experiments on the certainty effect near the certainty (near the probability p = 1) is stated in this paper. The need supported by the Aczél–Luce question whether Prelec’s weighting function W(p) is equal to 1 at p = 1, by the purely mathematical restrictions and the...

This review article introduces and evaluates various ways to aggregate probabilistic opinions of different individuals. For each of these three ways, an axiomatic characterization result is presented (a new one in the case of multiplicative pooling). The three ways satisfy different axioms and...

Three main groups of results have been obtained: 1) The question is emphasized whether the probability weighting function W(p) is continuous. If W(p) reveals a discontinuity at p=1, then this is a topological feature. This can qualitatively change (at least) the mathematical aspects of the...

The goals of this paper are to 1) simulate the ex-ante riskiness of purchasing a TCC, and 2) evaluate the efficiency of the TCC market in New York State to determine if there is evidence of under-pricing. Three VAR models are estimated using only market data available before the auction. This...

Sweeping regulatory reforms in Britain resulted in the formation of the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Because greater transparency of information is a major objective for this Act, shifting from one information system to another has re-distributive effects. We identify these effects at a...

This paper presents estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources...

Доказана теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей. Рассмотрены проявления этих разрывов в экономике и прогнозировании.

Приведена общая схема доказательства теорем о существовании разрывов на числовых отрезках и в шкале вероятностей. Рассмотрены некоторые возможности...