A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...

We propose a parsimonious statistical model of firm competition where structural differences in the strength of competitive pressure and the magnitude of return fluctuations above and below the system-wide benchmark translate into a skewed Subbotin or asymmetric exponential power (AEP)...

In this paper, our research question that could analyze how efficiency in Swedish financial enterprises has changed since the banking crisis in 1993. We estimate the time-invariant and time-variant efficiencies of Swedish financial enterprises with four different estimators. These estimators are...

Individuals face competitive environments daily, and it is important to understand how emotions affect behavior in these environments and resulting economic consequences. Using a two-stage laboratory experiment, I analyze the role of reported emotions in tournament performance and assess how the...

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical ensemble weather prediction models. Such regression models are capable of forecasting full probability distributions and correct for ensemble errors in the mean and variance. To estimate the corresponding...

Non-homogeneous post-processing is often used to improve the predictive performance of probabilistic ensemble forecasts. A common quantity to develop, test, and demonstrate new methods is the near-surface air temperature frequently assumed to follow a Gaussian response distribution. However,...

The goal of this paper is to provide alternative approaches to generate indexes in order to assess banking distress. Specifically, we focus on two groups of indexes that are based on the signalling approach and on the zero in ated Poisson models. The results show that the indexes based on these...

Time-series regressions including non-linear transformations of an integrated variable are not uncommon in various fields of economics. In particular, within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature, where the effect on the environment of income levels is investigated, it is standard...

Propensity score matching estimators have two advantages. One is that they overcome the curse of dimensionality of covariate matching, and the other is that they are nonparametric. However, the propensity score is usually unknown and needs to be estimated. If we estimate it nonparametrically, we...

How do individuals shape societies? How do societies shape individuals? This paper develops a framework for studying the connections between micro and macro phenomena. The framework builds on two ingredients widely used in social science - population and variable. Starting with the simplest case...