We examine episodes of large gross FDI inflows - surges - at the sectoral level between 1994 and 2009 for 95 emerging-market and industrial countries. We find that surges in the primary and manufacturing sectors are less cyclical and associated with lower macroeconomic volatility than surges in...

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) - the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter-is the indicator...

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find...

We examine episodes of large gross FDI inflows - surges - at the sectoral level between 1994 and 2009 for 95 emerging-market and industrial countries. We find that surges in the primary and manufacturing sectors are less cyclical and associated with lower macroeconomic volatility than surges in...