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Konjunktur aktuell: Stabile Konjunktur in Deutschland trotz krisenhaften Umfelds

Holtemöller, Oliver; Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich; Drygalla, … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 4 (2016) 1, pp. 4-29

Die deutsche Konjunktur ist trotz internationaler Risiken und politischer Verwerfungen kraftvoll in das Jahr 2016 gestartet. Beschäftigung und Einkommen nehmen zu, und die Binnennachfrage steigt deutlich, auch weil der Staat zusätzliche Ausgaben im Zusammenhang mit der Flüchtlingsmigration...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475132

Tracking and Predicting the German Economy: ifo vs. PMI

Lehmann, Robert; Reif, Magnus - 2020

are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of … survey providers produce valuable leading indicators to predict the current quarter of German GDP growth. Regarding forecasts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207910

The Political (In)Stability of Funded Pension Systems

Beetsma, Roel; Komada, Oliwia; Makarski, Krzysztof; … - 2020

We analyze the political stability of capital funded social security. In particular, using a stylized theoretical framework we study the mechanisms behind governments capturing pension assets in order to lower current taxes. This is followed by an analysis of the analogous mechanisms in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207941

The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Özer, Mustafa; Žugić, Jovana; Tomaš-Miskin, Sonja - In: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 7 (2018) 3, pp. 5-24

deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account … deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current … account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012217887

The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

Lehmann, Robert - 2020

Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of further indicators to forecast several important economic variables. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227631

Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data

Garnitz, Johanna; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - In: Applied Economics 51 (2019) 54, pp. 5802-5816

, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries and three country aggregates separately. We come up with three major … the major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293227

The Political (In)Stability of Funded Social Security

Beetsma, Roel M. W. J.; Komada, Oliwia; Makarski, Krzysztof - 2021

We analyze the political stability of funded social security. Using a stylized theoretical framework we study the mechanisms behind governments capturing social security assets in order to lower current taxes. The results and the driving mechanisms carry over to a fully-fledged and carefully...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012882341

Australian labour force participation: Historical trends and future prospects

Gustafsson, Linus - 2021

Over the past 40 years, Australia has experienced significant changes to the proportion of the population that is attached to its labour market. From the early 1980s, the aggregate labour force participation rate rose steadily, climbing from around 60 per cent in 1983 to almost 66 per cent in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162744

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia: Modelling approach

Bullen, Jared; Conigrave, Benjamin; Elderfield, Adam; … - 2021

Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162747

Investitionen, Auslastungsgrad und Öffentliche Finanzen in der mittleren Frist: Implikationen des Zweiten Nachtragshaushalts 2021

Drygalla, Andrej; Heinisch, Katja; Holtemöller, Oliver; … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 9 (2021) 4, pp. 141-148

Die Bundesregierung plant, mit dem Zweiten Nachtragshaushalt 2021 dem Energie- und Klimafonds eine Rücklage in Höhe von 60 Mrd. Euro zuzuführen. Die Mittel sollen in den Folgejahren in Investitionen in den Klimaschutz und die Transformation der Wirtschaft fließen und zugleich...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170234