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Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC).We find only small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852757
We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852760
long time, while more recent approaches are relatively unimportant for the practice of business cycle forecasting. DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159601
The crisis periods of the past decades have highlighted the difficulty of forecasting economic indicators due to …-dimensional dataset. Our approach is straightforward and can be seamlessly incorporated into existing forecasting frameworks. We … dataset, we show that the TSF framework substantially improves the forecasting accuracy across all models, with notable gains …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014545317
An updated version of our Markov-switching model of U.S. real GDP clearly suggests the COVID-19 recession was more U shaped than L shaped. As with linear time series models, it is important to account for extreme outliers during the pandemic, but a simple decay function for volatility from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014356498
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014555568
methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011344866