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Identification problems arise naturally in forward-looking models when agents observe more than economists. We illustrate the problem in several macro-finance models with Taylor rules. When the shock to the rule is observed by agents but not economists, identification of the rule's parameters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083775
We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083804
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083870
Private Sector in order to assist the MPC achieve its objectives? We show that this is not true for symmetric inflation … targeting, where ‘cheap talk’ selects the Pareto dominant equilibrium. (This contrasts with the case where high inflation is … penalised, but not below target inflation). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083934
difference between actual M3 growth (net of the inflation objective) and the expected money demand trend dynamics, can be useful … to predict HICP inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083938
The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by either real short-term interest rates or Taylor rule residuals varied substantially across countries in the period from 2003-2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083941
both on the duration of the zero lower bound and on features that determine the responsiveness of inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083967
Does the fiscal multiplier depend on the exchange rate regime and, if so, how strongly? To address this question, we first estimate a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model on time-series data for OECD countries. We identify the effects of unanticipated government spending shocks in countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083977
conditions, a policy of zero inflation is optimal both in the long run and in response to aggregate shocks. Key to this finding … is an "envelope" property: at zero inflation, a marginal increase in the rate of inflation has no effect on firms … remains very close to strict inflation targeting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084094
either price-level or nominal GDP targeting and compare these regimes to inflation targeting. These interest-rate rules are … domain of attraction of the targeted steady state, volatility of inflation and output and sensitivity to the speed of … learning parameter. Performance of price-level and nominal GDP targeting significantly improves if the additional guidance in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084145