periods, and economic recessions. Second, it uses an ordered probit framework for estimating and forecasting these three … einem automatisch spezifizierten multinomialen Probit-Modell geschätzt und prognostiziert. Dieses Modell stützt sich sowohl …

This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit based time series models …. Most studies use either a static probit model or its extensions in order toestimate the recession probabilities, while … sophisticated models outper-form the basic static probit model in various studies. An empirical analysis made for Finland …