This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non …-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …

on trade. In addition, shocks to credit supply constrained export supply further exacerbating the decline in trade. Most …

on trade. In addition, shocks to credit supply constrained export supply, further exacerbating the decline in trade. Most …

on trade. In addition, shocks to credit supply constrained export supply further exacerbating the decline in trade. Most …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …