light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, they decompose the …

light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, they decompose the …

importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in …

standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …

real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail …

The ex-ante forecast of the SP500 index discussed in Fantazzini (2010a), covering the time sample 14 … the SP500 index trailed the forecasted values quite well, moving inside the forecast confidence bands for over a year …/08/2010, the stock market index never returned inside the forecast confidence bands. Additional evidence is then provided to show …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …